Let me try to sort out some of the major factors that will work in favor of each party in their congressional races and the Presidential race. This is not a fully informed analysis but contains some things I think are significant and need to be taken into account.
For the Democrats, the Congressional prospects are quite good. Republicans have been in charge from 1996 to 2006 and, except for the Clinton legacy of a budget surplus, much of what has happened since belongs to the Republicans, most of it because of the rubber-stamping of the Bush administration’s policies and failure to investigate serious violations like the torture issue.
Because many of the Republican congressional leaders have retired in order to get cushy jobs as lobbyists, something the main stream media (MSM) has reported, and because so many have been convicted of sex or corruption charges, also reported widely in the MSM, Democrats in most states and districts have an excellent chance of winning those House and Senate seats.
Since those are mostly “local” elections, that is, are usually matters of which candidate will represent the mood of that district or state re: their particular needs and views, those races will not be overshadowed by foreign or even many domestic issues that may flare up between now and November.
Not everyone is savvy to how obstructionist the Republicans (both in Congress and in the Administration) have been since the Democratic takeover in 2006, the rest of the problems facing the Republicans will overcome that ignorance. The Democrats will win enough Senate seats to override a filibuster (more than 60). And the House majority will be strong enough to override a veto. That will put most Republicans into the situation where they will want to collaborate
Will progressives be the major power in the Democratic take-over? That will depend on their success in the primaries. Those that become the candidates will have a good chance of winning because they will reflect the mood of their constituencies. But many “blue dog” candidates from conservative states will win and Congress will end up having to work across the benches as well as across the aisle.
A partisan problem will not be eliminated by the likely Democratic congressional victory because districts will still tend to be gerrymandered so that whoever is elected will tend to operate on behalf of the base that elected them from their districts.
Only an Administration that is intent on collaboration and bringing everyone to the table can reset the mode of operation in Washington to work past that. It will be a tough sell.
If the new Administration blinks, it will be Washington as usual, only the fights will be between the progressives and moderates with the Republicans being spoilers.
It appears the prospects are excellent for the Democrats in both houses of Congress.
Prospects for the Presidency for the Democrats are better than for years.
Senator Obama has mobilized more people into his organization so that not only will Democrats be campaigning actively in all fifty states which helps the local Democratic Party as well as the national ticket, that mobilization has already out-raised and outspent the Republican Party. One significant recent report shows that military contributors back Sen. Obama over Sen. McCain by a margin of 6-1.
The strengths of the Obama campaign are that they have reached out to every group in the country, not just the traditional core groups of the Democratic Party. They have engaged young people way beyond anyone’s expectations. They have engaged all of the minorities far more successfully than the Republicans have. Since minorities are becoming majority in many parts of the country, that is a major plus for the Democrats.
Use of the internet has been incredibly effective so far and will continue to be through November, far more effective than what the Republicans have done in terms of quality, organization, and immediacy.
Sen. Obama himself is a far more winsome candidate and far more thoughtful and articulate candidate than Sen. McCain. Sen. McCain’s moral lapse in divorcing his first wife and the pettiness and ignorance of the rich guys campaigning for Sen. McCain will encourage a lot of moderate folks to vote against Sen. McCain and for Sen. Obama.
I think that Sen. McCain will drive off pro-Sen. Clinton supporters and will send them into Sen. Obama’s camp where they will vote. Things will be so bad on the Republican side that even the staunchest Clinton supporters will have to vote against McCain some way.
But will all of that be enough to provide a Democratic victory for Sen. Obama?
The first observation that needs to be made is that the American electorate tends to vote one way for Congress and the other way for President. They tend to not want to put all the political power into one basket.
That has not been true between 1992 and 2006, though in some districts it was clearly so.
--Note: I cannot document the above statements nor most of my other assertions, so take these as hypotheses which I think have been documented by others. You will hear them from others and maybe someone will show some of mine are not correct!--
My second observation is that the electoral processes all across the country have some real problems. While Ohio and Florida are the best examples of conflict of interest where Republicans and the computer voting machines of Republicans, even with the paper back-up, can leave a dark cloud of suspicion over the results.
Here are some of the problems in a little more detail. The county elections offices control the voting processes. Often, they are backed up by the state election officials (office of the Secretary of State). Decisions made by those local officials are crucial and often are potentially partisan.
The clearest example was the 2000 Florida Presidential election. Control of the kinds of ballots used, the format of those ballots, and the poor security around recounts all fell back upon Republican operatives.
That conflict of interest has not been addressed in Florida as yet.
Nor has it been addressed in Ohio, to my knowledge, where Diebold who makes many of the nation’s voting machines, is run by a Republican who was on President Bush’s state election committee in 2000 and 2004.
All it would take in most districts is a chip in the computers used for voting to switch 3% of a vote to make it possible for a candidate to “win” without raising a challenge. Since voting machines and their respective chips are considered by the courts as business secrets and cannot be checked, there is no way to know if the computers have been tampered with.
I still think something was fishy when in the 2000 and 2004 elections, exit polling and election results differed. To my knowledge, that had not been so in all previous elections.
--This is one more of my hypotheses based on my recollection of decades of watching elections.—
The Republicans still hold this edge and it could make a difference in who ends up being our next President.
Another problem where Republicans are in control of the election processes is that they determine whether or not someone may vote. In the last two elections a Texas company gathered all the names of felons and distributed them to election officials across the country. The lists were so long that there was little checking of the accuracy of the lists. Consequently, people with the same name, especially if they were ethnic (read that African-American), were turned down at the poles even if there was information which would have ordinarily qualified them to vote (like never being convicted anywhere, let alone of a felony).
I do not believe that possibility has been eliminated as we head into the 2008 elections.
News reports indicate that some election officials are not recognizing the voter registration of groups working with college students, minorities, and the elderly. If those folks show up at the polls and are turned away without having been warned that they were not yet registered, that will be horribly discouraging to potential voters.
I do not believe that issue has been addressed. It is likely to take law suits that are costly and time-consuming to resolve, so those voters will be disenfranchised for this election.
In Florida, voters must present a driver’s license. In Missouri, that is illegal because courts have ruled that it discriminates against the elderly and ethnic and student voters who do not drive nor have the resources to go to an obscure office to get some other kind of comparable ID. Despite that, election workers in Missouri were trained to turn down voters without a driver’s license!
For years, all I had to show was my voter registration card. Now it is no longer enough. There needs to be a national policy that is enforced across partisan lines and meets constitutional tests.
There are subtle ways that voters can be discouraged. I am a poll worker here in Florida. There are many things that bother me.
One, our precinct has been moved for the third time in three years with no notice of change being posted at the previous sites.
Two, we have an elderly population but the polling place has been moved to an elementary school which has long halls, too few staff to give direction and assistance in those long halls, small chairs and restroom facilities, obscure restrooms, an incorrect address, and a small amount of space for two precincts to function. We have informed the county elections office and do not see most of these problems being resolved. The school is free for the use of the election office.
Three, the new ballot system does include a paper ballot on which voters are to fill in small circles with a pencil that is then read by a computer which has its “proprietary” chips. It will take a fair amount of time to fill out. I can foresee our older voters pondering and penciling for more than a few minutes. I foresee the long lines in November. The Republican officers in charge of this election loved the touch screen computer voting machines and are choosing a paper program that is clearly more time-consuming even though there are other machines which print out the results of a touch screen system which is as fast as clerks use at McDonalds.
Back on the national stage, the MSM (mainstream media) seems to continue to slant its news about the candidates so that they will appear to stay close. They also may be very much more interested in protecting the business interests of the corporations that own them. I think that will be hard to overcome. The internet can do only so much.
The Republicans have no problem with telling the truth. For them, under Richard Viguery and Karl Rove, they will say anything they think someone will believe even if it is not true. They are already sending out e-mails which are well-designed and cleverly written but which are not signed. And they intend to play on the fears and prejudices of Americans. That may backfire as people become skeptical of these attacks . . . but maybe not.
Finally, the deep-seated prejudices in many individuals and communities and neighborhoods will operate in many folks’ hearts when they are in the voting booths. They want to believe all the bad stuff they hear about Sen. Obama so they can justify keeping their racial prejudice but have an excuse that doesn’t sound racist..
How many of them are there? A lot more than we want to think. Enough of them to make a major difference in this election? Possibly not just by themselves. But with all the other factors to the advantage of Sen. McCain, the Republican candidate won’t turn these votes down.
A frightening problem is that the lies and fear-mongering will persuade someone to try to assassinate Sen. Obama. The Secret Service is very competent but there have already been complaints about them not providing tight security in some contexts.
The chances are very good that they will see to it Sen. Obama will be safe for the rest of his life.
MY CONCLUSION
Based on this set of observations, I believe that more Americans will vote for Sen. Obama than will vote for Sen. McCain. Despite all the tricks, electoral process advantages, and lies of the McCain supporters, Sen. Obama will maintain his lead and will win more states and more electoral votes than Sen. McCain.
Sen. Obama will have a Congress with which he can work his collegial style. America has a chance to come out of its funk.
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