Trump's "Little Green Men"

I offered the following as a letter to the editor of our local newspaper:

Editor,

Poor President Trump.  His friend Vladimir Putin urged him in a phone call in June to "dominate the streets" when the Black Lives Matter demonstrations got too close to the White House and the Secret Service rushed Trump into the bunker downstairs just in case.  So, Trump ordered a fully armed military unit to Washington along with miscellaneous other federal police groups.  The soldiers came with bayonets but did not bring them onto the streets.  

Putin had used Russian troops in Ukraine but they wore no identification.  They just took over Crimea and eastern Ukraine.  So Trump saw to it that the enforcers he brought to Washington also had no ID.  Trump got his photo op at St. John's Church across the street.

He now plans to send unmarked troops to eleven major cities, all run by Democrats.  He is ignoring the 130 other cities that have had BLM demonstrations every night since George Floyd died.

Portland, OR, was the first foray outside the Capitol for Trump to use what are now being called "little green men."  They faced off with peaceful demonstrators around a federal building full of graphiti.  They "dominated the street" with tear gas and grabbed people off the street and drove them away in unmarked cars.  The next night, a retired Navy seal, confronted the feds.  At 6' 7" he towered over them.  He asked them if they believed in the oath they took to defend the Constitution so they tried to knock him down with batons and when that didn't work, they broke his arm and pepper-sprayed him in the face.  

The next night, women came out and formed an arm-linked line between the protesters (their kids) and the soldiers.  Tear gas.  So the following night, Trump's little green men were met by "Dads with Leaf Blowers."   

Poor President Trump still hasn't got the video footage he wants for his political ads so he is sending more of his little green men to Chicago.  I wonder what folks there have up their sleeves.

Update:  Upon counting words, the above had to be edited down.  I did the best I could and gave the last ten or so words to be done by the newspaper.  It took a few days but they finally published my letter to the editor within the word limit on August 5.

How do you know what news is true?

How do you know what news is true?

AARP Bulletin for July and August listed ten suggestions:

1. Who wrote it? No author, be cautious. Google the name of the one who wrote it. You may learn enough to tell how credible the writer is.

2. Does the headline grab you? Then read the article to see if the headline is actually backed up by what is in the article before sharing or liking it. Note the source and be wise about dealing with future articles from that source.

3. Most writers are affiliated with some "source," an agency, news outlet, research firm, etc. It is good to know what the source is and as much about it as you need to know regarding its credibility.

4. If the article urges immediate action, be sure the writer and source and funding mechanism are legitimate. Some urgent action calls are not legitimate and when clicking forward at the urging sometimes leads you into sales or fraud situations about which you were not warned.

5. Facebook and some other social media now provide a "blue shield" or symbol next the source or "owner" of the account to confirm it is authentic. Be cautious if that symbol is not included on the page.

6. Pictures can be photoshopped. So to be sure the picture is not disinformation, "drag and drop" the picture into Google Image to see if it finds another picture that had been been altered.

7. If the story is true, it will also be carried on other media and sources. If your source is the only one carrying it, be cautious about passing it on.

8. Legitimate sources are usually properly spelled and formatted. Fake accounts misspell or use odd wording or provide inaccurate history.

9. Check the date of the article. If an old article or picture is posted implying it is contemporary, be cautious about its news value. The date of the original article is usually on it. If not, Snopes and other fact checking sources can let you know if it is news or not.

10. Is it news or opinion? News answers the questions about when, where, what happened, how, and why. Opinions contain only enough to try to persuade you about something. Know the difference between fact and opinion. Do not pass on an opinion as a fact or as news.

I do not always make sure about things I feel strongly about. I mean to and most of the time, if I do not know the source, I use almost all of the above techniques (I don't use the picture googling yet) all the rest of the time. Now you can check my posts for authenticity as well as those you are tempted to share.

How risky is the aerosol form of the COVID virus?

How risky is the aerosol form of the COVID virus?

A little more than than the droplets. The droplets are most dangerous because they carry a lot of the virus. Sneezes, coughs, and loud vocalizing produce pretty good sized globs of mouth moistures that are really bad when we get a load of them. But if we do not get them pretty directly, they are heavier than air and drop pretty fast to the ground/floor and, so far, appear to lose their dangerousness almost right away.

The virus also ride on tiny drops of vapor, the kind of moisture you see in the winter when your breath condenses in the air. In warm weather, you never see those tiny droplets, but they still come out of us all the time when we breath. What we do not see in the winter is how the microscopic droplets hang around us for awhile and hang in the air for as much as three hours before finally dropping to the grounds/floor.

A better analogy than winter breathing-steam is cigarette smoke. You know who is a smoker when you get within a foot or two (or more for some of us non-smokers). The virus hangs around an infected person like the cigarette smell hangs around a smoker.

Staying away from others by presuming everyone else is infected is the safest strategy. The six foot social distancing is very good because the mist of virus loaded micro-drops around the asymptomatic or otherwise infected person is about three feet wide, the farther into the mist globe you may move accidentally, the more risk. Literally close your eyes, hold your breath, and move on!

That's why it is so bad to be in an enclosed room with lots of people or even In close proximity with a lot of people. Imagine being stuck in a room with all smokers, even if none is actually smoking!

Being outside with people staying three or more feet away and everyone moving so they are not staying in one place into which a puff of virus micro mist could invade and hover, the risk is really quite low. So far, the demonstrations have not caused any significant infections where being on a crowded beach has been s serious risk.

Now if you add a mask, your chances of becoming infected outside anywhere drop to near zero. Being in a store with few others near you leaves you almost complete risk free, especially if the workers are masked. If they aren't, cover your eyes as well as nose and mouth!

I leave my sunglasses on all the time when I am out of the house, even in stores. They are not as good as a full-face gas mask or a face shield but they cut the risk.

Stay safe, don't touch your face, keep social distancing, wash your hands, and when getting close to anyone, realize they have this halo of micro mist (just like you do and like all smokers do!).

COVID 19- FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

COVID 19 FAQS

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

When the pandemic broke out, my first thought was selfish.  How do we protect ourselves, our families, and our friends? 

Then I remembered friends I had made at the 2012 General Conference from other parts of the world and sent emails.  One of the responses indicated the congregations in his developing country were being broken down into house churches, most of which had no electricity, running water, or decent medical care available.  That triggered in me all kinds of questions that I would ask if I were looking for ideas on how to conduct house churches safely and have useable information to meet the challenge of the pandemic.

Having used house church techniques in starting a congregation, I presumed the house churches described by my friend were made up of neighborhood groupings.  That meant that each house church would need someone to monitor the health of those attending before they actually entered the house.  So I wrote nearly all of the following answers for basic questions that such groups and individuals might need answered.

After sending nearly all of the following to my friend, having written them In a two day period (a couple on the end were finished over the days since the majority were written), my friend let me know the house churches were made up of all the multi-generational members of a family that lived together!  That meant there was far less need to have the monitoring of people who might attend from outside the home.

But there may be others who might find the materials I’ve generated helpful.  If nothing else, I have posted a lot of what we know now about the disease causing the pandemic and it may be something I will be glad I recorded when I did.

You might also be interested.  If you learn I have erred, please contact me!  I do not want to give out any information that could cause harm!

COVID 19 - How and when it began

COVID 19 - How and when it began

In Wuhan, China, there is a "wet market," a street fresh meat market where people can get all kinds of exotic meats.  The meat of dogs, birds, bats, and other wild animals is for sale.  Scientists have recognized that a corona virus commonly found in the droppings of bats that live in the region around Wuhan were on bat meat being sold at the market.  Recent reports indicate that people living in the area have other interactions with the bats and the bats’ dung, meaning that there may have been other ways the virus jumped into the human pool.

Corona viruses are very common in the world.  You will see them noted among the things that bleach or Lysol kills when they are used for cleaning.  Just like there are many different kinds of germs, there are many different kinds of viruses.  And there are many different kinds of corona viruses so the World Health Organization has teams of people who live in several places around the world who watch for people who get sick because of some new virus that makes the jump from animals to humans and causes diseases.  

Even though in 2018 President Trump closed the office of the American researchers in China, doctors from other nations stayed and discovered this bat-related virus (COVID 19) had infected quite a number of people by late October of 2019.  A Chinese research lab isolated and identified the virus and China took steps to try to prevent the spread.  They were unsuccessful but they did not share their information very widely, most likely because under their Communist form of government, really bad news is hidden because it would make the government look bad.

Rumors and conspiracy theorists have floated the idea that the Chinese army genetically altered the virus and then accidentally or intentionally spread it.  Others say it was produced by American bioweapon manufacturers and experimented with in China, maybe as part of the economic conflict between China and America.  These and other such stories are false.  Other scientists who were aware of the virus examined it and reported that it was natural in its formation and not altered genetically.

Whether the virus jumped from the bat meat to humans by it being eaten or by contact with the hands of the workers at the market and transferred to the facial openings of the eyes, nose, or mouth, it is not clear.

Throughout history, animals that are used regularly by human beings, especially since they have been domesticated, have passed germs (single cell live creatures) and viruses (even tinier things that only come to life when they enter a host body like a human being) to humans and caused serious epidemics that harmed people.  Things like chicken pox, cow pox, swine flu, smallpox, influenza, and many other diseases have occurred that way.  (See Jared Diamond's book GUNS, GERMS, AND STEEL, chapter 11, for more information.)  

I think it was the AIDS epidemic which led public health agencies in many countries in the United Nations to begin putting doctors in certain places like China and Africa to watch for such events.  Because of those monitoring groups, other very serious diseases like Ebola were spotted early and not allowed to spread very widely from their points of origin.  

The coronavirus discovered in 2019 (hence called COVID 19) got away and spread into the human population.  

On April 23, 2020, doctors found that a person died of COVID 19 in Santa Clara County, USA, back in February, meaning that she had been infected in January, two months before the earliest reported COVID 19 cases had been discovered in Washington state.  Up till early March, COVID 19 was thought to be transferred by being close to someone who had traveled in China recently.  But after them, cases began to come up in California that the patients had not traveled nor been in direct contact with anyone who had traveled to China.  The pandemic hit New York state, brought by people flying in from Europe.  It was discovered that many spread the virus even though they were not sick themselves.

It appears that what happened was that the virus had spread so quickly that because of air travel and cruise ships and world conferences and sporting events and crowded subways, the virus spread like the flu and common colds do, so quickly that it had probably arrived in every country in the world by January first.  

The more developed countries like the United States probably had hundreds of thousands of cases by February 1 and then, despite the American government's slow response (probably because of the same reasons China was unwilling to acknowledge how bad it was), cities, counties, and states in the US, along with some of the European countries like Germany, took action to try to stop the spread.

COVID 19 - How it is spread

COVID 19 - How it is spread

Like other corona viruses that cause colds and flu, the viruses attach to tiny droplets that are expelled from the mouth and nose of an infected person, mainly though coughing, and sneezing.  They are also spread by singing and breathing.  Imagine it being like when you see your breath in the winter or how your breath can steam on a cool smooth surface like eye glasses.

Coughing and sneezing are obvious spreaders of the virus.  Speaking and singing spread more tiny droplets than most people think.  We've all seen speakers that we do not want to stand too near because of how much saliva actually comes out of their mouth as they speak.  Of course most of us do not talk that way, but anyone who speaks with animation or strength certainly passes into the air microscopic droplets of moisture from their mouths.  

Singing, as a great opera star once said, is controlled screaming!   Most of us do not have to produce such volumes as would be required for an operatic performance.  But, none the less, singing like speaking produces tiny droplets containing the virus.  This was tragically discovered when, within a few days of a choir rehearsal, 40 of the sixty members began to get sick from COVID 19.  

Originally, it was thought that all cases occurred because someone was in personal contact with an ill person in China where the epidemic broke out.  And then it was realized that being close to someone who traveled from China could explain how they got the disease.  This kind of transfer of an illness is the most common form of infection of many viruses like for flu and colds.

But then people began to be infected without either having traveled to China or having contact with someone from there.

That kind of infection is called "community transmission."  The most likely cause, according to scientists, is that the virus does not die once it falls on surfaces that people commonly touch.  So tabletops, counters, and any other surface that infected people may have touched and left their droplets from sneezing, etc., could be where the infection was passed to the hands of others and then from their hands to their faces.

Tests have shown that when a person coughs or sneezes, droplets from their mouth and nose can travel up to twenty feet in a closed, quiet room.  

Are there other possibilities such as viruses that have fallen to the floor in a store or even on the street have stuck to the bottom of people's feet thus getting onto our hands when we get home and remove our foot coverings (if any).  Or maybe the viruses are stirred up like dust when we are walking in public and it rises to the level of our faces.  Or are there other possible ways the virus gets into our systems that we haven't discovered yet?

So far, this early in the pandemic, we can only guess, based on how similar viruses have been infecting people in the past.  It may be a year or more before we discover all of the ways COVID 19 gets into our system. 

Update:  In early May, the following article described how the virus clings to the droplets in the very mist of our breath so that it can hover in the air like cigarette smoke where a person who is spreading the virus has been.  And as with cigarette smoke, an air conditioner can move puffs of droplets together across a room, infecting many in their path. https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR3UKvh_GBki7YBnSlrmpVNyIEWNa8iOO7dNza-i0mft-mNeeVlHB-U7uEQ

This article does an excellent job indicating what the risk is in various situations people normally find themselves.

(Disclaimer: I am not a trained medical person, just an observer and reporter.  Doctors and other scientists will give more accurate information as they have a chance.)

COVID 19 - How to stop its spread

COVID 19 - How to stop its spread

Have you ever wondered why the Japanese leave their shoes at the door, why people from India press their hands together in front of their faces and bow when they greet others, why Jesus washed his Disciples feet at the Last Supper, or why Europeans carried big handkerchiefs everywhere?  

Worldwide sicknesses like COVID 19 are not new.  They have come along many times over human history.  And to counter the effects of such terrible illnesses, people have hung on to personal practices that carried over from those times.

Some practices have probably saved lives even in some places before a pandemic has struck a country.  What COVID 19 has done is cause everyone to try to pull together the best practices, the best habits that slow or even stop the spread of the disease.

The first practice is this: STAY HOME.  Stay away from everyone else.  Have as little contact with others as possible.  This is especially true for anyone who feels sick, has a fever, or coughs a lot.  When in doubt, stay home.

The second is this: STAY SIX FEET AWAY FROM OTHERS. If you have to go out, avoid contact with people.  Go to the market as early as possible.  That may mean being very patient and standing and waiting so that once it is your turn, you can shop or do business at least six feet apart from others.

The third is this: WEAR A FACE COVERING. If you have to go out and may have to pass within six feet of others, show love for your neighbor by presuming you may have the virus but are not coughing or sneezing yet.  Some who are infected never show symptoms.  Most who are infected do not show symptoms until several days after they are infected but they can still spread the virus by touching or breathing on someone close or by talking or singing close to someone.  So while you may be just fine and not sick at all, you should cover your nose and mouth snugly with a cotton or other smooth tight weave that can catch tiny droplets that come out with your breath and hold them in to minimize their spread to those who have to be near you for some reason.

The fourth is this: DO NOT TOUCH ANY SURFACES.  This is nearly impossible when marketing or when out on other necessary errands.  Bump doors open with your hip or elbow.  Don't use your hands any more than absolutely needed.  Be assured that your skin, especially on your hands, will not let the viruses into your body (unless you have open sores of any kind).  But the more viruses you accumulate, the higher your risk is for some of them to get to your nose, mouth, or eyes.

The fifth is this: DISINFECT YOUR HANDS.  In many places, soap and water are readily available and you should wash your hands any time you feel you may have touched something that might have the virus on it.  Doctors recommend singing a song like "Happy Birthday to You" twice while washing so that you rub enough to get all the viruses off by the time you finish the song and rinse your hands.  Some places have hand sanitizer which is at least 60% alcohol which kills the viruses on your skin.  In places without such options, there may be plants, soils, mushrooms, or other natural materials that have anti-viral qualities that can kill the virus on your hands.  Or maybe someone makes a very strong alcohol beverage that would make a good hand sanitizer.  

The sixth is this: DON'T TOUCH YOUR FACE.  Whether or not you can sanitize your hands, do not scratch your nose, rub your eyes, or put your fingers in your mouth.  While the skin on your hands can keep the virus out, any body opening, especially around the face, can allow the virus to find the warmth and moisture it needs to "germinate" and multiply and make you sick.

The seventh is this: LEAVE YOUR OUTSIDE SHOES AT THE DOOR.  Change to inside slippers if you need foot coverings at home and leave any possible viruses on your shoes away from your living space.  And if by chance you have been in crowds or out in areas where a lot of people are, you may by wise in putting your outer clothes into the laundry.  You may even want to wear some kind of outer covering that you can leave with your shoes when you get home.  (Muslim women may have originally worn Burkas and veils to protect them from viruses during a pandemic many centuries ago.)

The eighth is this:  DISINFECT YOUR HANDS.  I know this is also the fifth rule above but it is a reminder to sanitize your hands the best you can when you get home.

The ninth is this: IF YOU ARE SICK OR HAVE A FEVER, STAY HOME.  It is practically the same as the first, but if you are sick, you will infect others for sure if you go out.  Do not go out.  Stay home and take care of yourself so you can get well and then you can go out.  Sometimes that is impossible so following all the other rules above become extremely important.  

Other rules may be suggested or even be made mandatory.  Consider them and take them seriously.

If for no other reason, doing these things will slow the virus spread.  Those countries, counties, cities, and other places that have followed these personal hygiene and social distancing practices have slowed the pandemic.  The virus is very dangerous because it does not just go away.  But the fewer people who get the virus, the longer it will be before you get it.  And if we can prevent that as long as possible, a cure may be found or a vaccine may become available, and the pandemic will be over, all because you followed these best practices and STAYED HOME.

(Disclaimer: I am not a trained medical person, just an observer and reporter.  Doctors and other scientists will give more accurate information as they have a chance.)

COVID 19 - What it's like to be sick

COVID 19 - What it's like to be sick

This is not your everyday cold or flu.  If you are infected, you are at least four times more likely to die than if you get the flu.  

An excellent resource for medical information on COVID 19 is from Mayo Clinic:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20479963

More simply, let's look at the disease progressively.

First, YOU HAVE NO SYMPTOMS.  The virus takes from two to six days to build up to where it may cause you to have symptoms like coughing or a bad headache.  Or lose your senses of taste and/or smell.  Or you may be one of the folks who never gets symptoms but feels fine the whole time.  There has not been enough worldwide testing to say what percentage or which kinds of folks do not get sick at all.  I've heard that people with Type B blood do not get sick. I've heard women are less likely to get sick than men.  But so far, no studies have shown a clear pattern.  We know that a large number do not get sick because testing has gone on long enough to show that many people have had the virus but they never had the symptoms.  It is hard to conclude anything because so far, testing has not been nearly complete enough, but it appears that even these folks may have spread the virus without knowing it.  Based on experience with cold and flu viruses, people can pass the infection before they start sneezing.  COVID 19 is spread by the person days before for the first fever or other sign of illness.

Second, YOU MAY HAVE ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING: FEVER, COUGHING, SNEEZING, HEADACHE, BODY MUSCLES ACHING, WEAKNESS, AND OTHER FLU-LIKE SYMPTOMS.  These can be mild or they can be bad enough to keep you in bed.   It is the most likely form of the disease, except that the temperature of the fever is two or so degrees higher than usual for the flu.  

(Note:  What is noted here is subject to change: The fever is a serious matter and should be brought down as much as possible.  Some say that acetaminophen [Tylenol] is the best medicine for that.  The body knows the virus hates heat but the body is unfamiliar with this virus and may overheat.)   

Third, YOU MAY GET PNEUMONIA.  Tightness around the chest and shortness of breath along with high fever are signs of serious illness.  The body fights the virus in different ways in different parts of the body and the virus affects different parts of the body in different ways.  When it hits the lungs, the lungs react by flooding the virus out with hot body fluid.  That begins to fill the lungs.  That usually means the lung are less able to take in oxygen.  Pneumonia patients are urged to get up and move around, force the lungs to function which usually means that the fluid comes out in coughing or the lung lining takes it back into the body, freeing up lung space for absorbing oxygen.  In some patients, that fluid gets stickier than usual.  If a patient stays too long on their back, the stickier fluid becomes embedded and does not respond as well to walking.  So doctors in some places are having the patients lie on their stomachs as much as they lie on their backs or rotate the patient's body so it does not lie in one position for very long.  The hope is to prevent the sticky fluid from settling and clogging the lungs.  There may be some merit in using a technique parents of children with cystic fibrosis use, pounding gently but firmly on the back to loosen accumulated gunk in the lungs.  Another promising area being explored are the techniques used with prematurely born infants.  Avoiding or defeating pneumonia is crucial for survival.  (See update below.)

Fourth, YOU MAY DIE.  Early estimates from scientists studying China's experience are that about four percent of COVID 19 patients may die.  That is high for a virus that in other forms makes people annoyingly sick.  Most flu patients' risk is around 1% or less.  With COVID 19, the lungs fill to where the oxygen level in the patient's blood is fifty percent, about the same percent as standing on the top of the Mount Everest.  Breathing is terrible gasping.  Organs like the liver do not get enough oxygen to function. And the body surrenders, finally.

Fifth, YOU MAY SURVIVE.  In New York City, some patients have been on ventilators for three weeks and survived.  Others without such crisis resources have also survived.  Those with the lighter symptoms that do not descend into pneumonia usually get back to normal within a few weeks.  Those who have been sicker may not feel right until months later.  Those who went through a bad pneumonia may have weakened body organs like kidneys or at worst, their brains, and will have longer term difficulties.  

Update: Research is showing that COVID 19 does not just attack mucous membranes as most other flu and cold viruses do.  It goes into the walls of your arteries and causes your body to try to defend itself with an overload of a certain body fluid (“Cytocine storm”) but in many patients the defense does not work but instead causes problems.  The virus also goes into the blood itself in a way that causes blood clots which damage the lungs, liver, and other organs, and can cause strokes.  See
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200424/blood-clots-are-another-dangerous-covid-19-mystery?fbclid=IwAR3A_5P1g6MGh-lluR8jW18TF2U8zWK7KgJJ6_L9o3yqofP7JnXB_640hf4

New research is being reported almost daily so please watch for it.

COVID19 is a very serious illness.  It is to be profoundly respected and not ignored.  Great care must be taken to avoid getting sick and spreading the illness.  Survival chances are only slightly better for those under 65 and without underlying medical conditions.  Perfectly healthy young adults, those of healthy middle age, five year olds, and infants have all died of COVID 19.  But a 107 year old woman, some pregnant mothers, and most others have survived.  Why some and not others, why some have no symptoms and others do, and many more questions are yet to be answered.  There is still much to learn from this experience with a virus our bodies have never seen before.

(Disclaimer: I am not a trained medical person, just an observer and reporter.  Doctors and other scientists will give more accurate information as they have a chance.)

COVID 19 - Who are most at risk?

COVID 19 - Who are most at risk?

The highest number of illnesses and death are where people are congregated in close quarters for long periods of time.

Cruise ships carrying tourists through the warm seas of the Mediterranean Sea and of Central America were the first ones noticed in such enclosed settings.  One US Navy aircraft carrier has come to the public's attention.

In America, it has suddenly become a serious problem in homes for the elderly, in jails and prisons, and in manufacturing plants where the workers work side by side.  COVID 19 has also struck the staffs, not just the workers in those tight quarters.  

There are best practices being developed and put into place in these kinds of institutions,

One, NO OUTSIDE VISITORS.  For the duration of the pandemic, friends and neighbors are not being allowed into these places.  

Two, PACKAGES AND MAIL WILL BE LEFT ON THE FRONT PORCH AT THE ENTRY AND THEN PICKED UP AND DELIVERED ONLY BY STAFF.  Family members and delivery persons will no longer deliver to a resident's rooms/cells.

Three, DURING MEALS, ONLY ONE PERSON (OR A MARRIED COUPLE) PER TABLE.  The dining room could be closed at the discretion of the administration and meals delivered to each person in the room/cell by staff.  Factory workers need to eat their lunches six feet apart in designated open spaces in the factory. 

Four, THE NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS FOR ONSITE SPECIAL ACTIVITIES WILL BE LIMITED TO ALLOW FOR SIX FOOT SEPARATION.

Five, ELEVATORS ARE LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN TWO PERSONS AT A TIME.

Six, THE HEALTH OF ALL WORKERS WILL BE CHECKED WHEN THEY ARRIVE.

Seven, NO RESIDENT MAY LEAVE THE FACILITY.  While jails and prisons should be emptied of all inmates except the most violently dangerous, inmates should have places to live once released.  For residential institutions, no one from the outside should be allowed in. Workers should be checked when they arrive at the facility.  Those who have a temperature or other symptoms should be sent home.  Senior citizens have to stay on their facility grounds maintaining six feet separation for the duration.

Eight, ALL STAFF SHALL WEAR FACE COVERINGS AT ALL TIMES WHEN ON DUTY.   RESIDENTS/INMATES/WORKERS SHALL WEAR FACE COVERINGS WHEN AMONG OTHERS AND ALSO MAINTAIN SIX FOOT SEPARATION.

Nine, WHEN SICK, THE PERSON SHOULD STAY HOME OR IN THEIR ROOMS/CELLS. 

The staffs and workers of all these facilities are vulnerable because they leave the campus and are among the general population.  Having face coverings and keeping social distancing are needed till they get home.  There, they have to be careful about shoes, cleaning hands, and handling their clothes.  

These places rarely have adequate medical staff if a large number of residents/inmates are infected.  Getting help needs to be lined up should the pandemic become an issue.

Older people with diabetes, heart problems, and conditions where their immunity is low are likeliest to be harmed the most by COVID 19.  So precautions like these are critical to their safety and well-being.

Among the general public, younger people with such underlying conditions are also very vulnerable.  As noted elsewhere, everyone of every sort and every age is vulnerable.  No one knows whether they will have an easy case or a hard one of the COVID 19 virus.  It is best to presume you are vulnerable so that you remember to be cautious.  Remember also that you are a child of God and that God will be with you all the way through this ordeal. 

(Disclaimer: I am not a trained medical person, just an observer and reporter.  Doctors and other scientists will give more accurate information as they have a chance.)

COVID 19 - Will warmer weather make a difference?

COVID 19 - Will warmer weather make a difference?

Like similar viruses, this virus will probably not be quite as serious over the hottest days of the summer.  The virus tends to die when in the direct sun, though no studies have said under what conditions.  During lab experiments, sunlight does very well against the virus but outside, with changing humidities, shade, and directness of sun, it is hard to say.

Any laundry hung out to dry in the sun, any time of the year, especially the face covering cloths, will be helped to be sanitary.

So far since the beginning of the pandemic was announced in March, there have been serious outbreaks of the COVID 19 in south Florida and New Orleans, some of the warmest sites in the United States.  It has also been bad in equatorial Congo in Africa and some other warm weather sites around the globe.  It appears summer's drop off, common with other viruses, will not be that significant world-wide.  The more important factor could be the success of people staying home now.  Social separation works.  If people get lax as they did during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919, there will be a huge return of the virus and the number of deaths could skyrocket next winter.

Update: Reopening restaurants, businesses closed down, and manufacturing plants too soon can also cause a spike.  As of this writing, Texas, which opened up economically two weeks ago is experiencing a serious spike in hospitalizations and deaths.

(Disclaimer: I am not a trained medical person, just an observer and reporter.  Doctors and other scientists will give more accurate information as they have a chance.)

COVID 19 How and when will the pandemic end?

COVID 19  How and when will the pandemic end?

To be a pandemic, the cause (in this case a virus named COVID 19) can no longer find a host in which it can survive.  What will end the virus's ability to survive?  There are three possibilities.  - In reality, the three eventually combine.

One, everyone catches it and either dies or survives.  It is expected that those who survive have built up antibodies in their blood that will kill the virus if it enters their bodies again. - There is a possibility that this virus may be different enough not to operate like any other previously known disease-causing agent.  Anecdotal evidence says in South Korea some who caught it are catching it again.  It is too early to know if that is what is happening or if the testing of those patients was accurate. - There is some evidence that the virus could die out after infecting only as much as 70 % of the population.  But that is yet to be seen to be true of this particular virus.  But eventually, with no intervention, the virus runs out of hosts in which it can live and reproduce to make someone sick.

Two, scientists find something that can kill the virus in people.  There are at least a hundred groups and companies seeking such medicines.  Some are experimenting with things no one had thought of before.  Most are trying older, known medicines that have worked in infections caused by similar viruses.  To be sure the medicine they are trying is safe and effective, each medicine has to be tested over several months’ time to be sure it causes no harm and in fact stops the virus from causing any more damage to the patient.  There are a lot of situations such as patients with heart conditions who may not be able to use some medicines that work on other patients.  Variables like that have to be accounted for, hence a little more time has to be taken to be sure.  Estimates are that such a medicine or medicines are effective will be known within the next six months.  But then it will take as many more months to get the medicine manufactured in enough quantities to be able to be released for use by doctors. clinics, and hospitals.  Once that medicine is mass produced and distributed around the world, the virus could be overcome and the pandemic could be over.  That is estimated as anywhere from the end of the year to mid-summer next year if all goes well. - One of the most promising is the use of blood serum from patients who have survived, developed antibodies, and those antibodies prove to work in patients who are still sick.  

Three, scientists in over 100 places are trying to develop a vaccine which can help people develop immunity to the virus.  We have many such vaccines for many diseases like pneumonia, measles, and smallpox.  Each vaccine protects people from a specific virus or germ.  Sometimes it takes more than one round of injection or other form of receiving it.  The timing of discovering the vaccine is similar to the timing for medicine.  Testing is needed to be sure it works and is safe.  Then there's the matter of getting the manufacturing going to make enough to vaccinate everyone.  That is expected to be about 18 months also.  But once the vaccine is distributed to everyone, the virus will no longer have hosts that will allow them to grow.

In reality, the medicine may be only a few months away and the vaccine might be ready by the end of the year.  There are many wonderful people looking at all the possibilities and finding new ideas to add to what has been learned over the years.

But also in reality, the virus may change.  Flu viruses change every year or so and the vaccine that worked on last year's flu virus may not work on next year's so a new vaccine has to be made.  One of the reasons there are doctors posted in areas that have produced previous epidemics and pandemics is so they can identify the new or changed viruses that are developing every year.  Their research can give the testing and the manufacturing elements a head start.  

In one sense, once a new virus like COVID 19 comes along, it may be with us for us the rest of our lives like the flu viruses have been.  

But in another sense, this virus will be defeated and may teach us how to be more ready for the next time it evolves into another form and infects human beings in a new round.  If we do put up the defenses properly, the next time will not be as widespread nor as dangerous.

Finally, by staying away from each other and taking precautions like wearing face coverings when we have to be with others, cleaning our hands, not touching faces, staying home, working at home, and isolating when showing symptoms, we buy time until the medicine is found and the vaccine is ready. 

(Disclaimer: I am not a trained medical person, just an observer and reporter.  Doctors and other scientists will give more accurate information as they have a chance.) 

COVID 19 Inexpensive testing

COVID 19  Inexpensive testing

In developed countries, testing for the corona virus is a big deal.  Many testing systems have been hurried into service and have proved to not be completely reliable.  But the goal of knowing who has the virus, who they have been in contact with, and what kind of symptoms they have are all important issues for public health reasons so the hospitals can plan for any upsurges as well as what to do with the patient who tests positive.  Some municipalities are testing the virus content of their sewage to watch for rises in their amount.  There has been enough reliability among the tests that such public health work has been pretty successful.

There are several tests that can be made with individuals without the high tech equipment.  They can give important clue as to who may be infected.  As with all my other medical advice, this is more like a reporter's observation than anything medically definitive.  

Asking questions – How are you feeling?  Any extra coughing or sneezing, feeling weak, and difficulty breathing?  Have you been with someone who has the virus?  Have you traveled to where a lot have been sick with the virus?  Have you experienced any of the following symptoms of the COVID 19 (followed by the list of usual symptoms)?  These are typical questions about the person’s own awareness of any symptoms they may have and if they may have been somewhere with known patients.

With a new awareness of some of the riskier activities people may have that could expose them, here are some additional questions:  In the past two weeks, have you attended a gathering with people who do not live with you for a funeral, wedding, birthday party, or other celebration?  In the past two weeks, have you taken part in a choir practice, participated in any team sports, attended a dance, or been involved in physical activities that brought you close to others who do not live with you?  Have you been in a room or vehicle during the last two weeks with people who were not living with you for more than a coupe minutes?  In the last two weeks, have you been in any kind of crowd including people not living with you?  In the past two weeks, has someone other than those who live with you given you a haircut, worked on your hair or nails, or otherwise helped you directly?

The “yes” answers to any of these questions would indicate the person was in a risky situation recently and may mean they are carrying the virus even if they have no symptoms.  Fourteen days since such events means the person is probably safe from infection. 

Temperature - Most airports in the world now have ways to spot someone with a high temperature.  Using apps on cell phones sensitive to heat or hand held thermometers that can be close to or touch someone's forehead, airport workers can determine who has a high temperature.  Similar technology is being used at work sites, hospitals, nursing homes, and even stores and markets that are open to determine if the work force and customers are less or more likely to have the virus.  

COVID 19 causes people to have temperatures higher than flu patients by about two degrees.  So newly infected people may already have a temperature as high or higher than a flu patient.

So where there is no such technology, looking for someone's rise in body temperature can be noted by the usual means, touching the forehead, feeling the radiation off the person's body, and sometimes the look in their eyes.  During the pandemic, determining another's temperature should be done from six feet and may require asking the person.  For example, you see a friend on the street.  Her eyes look tired and not quite right.  If she has less head cover than usual, or a light shirt rather than a usual heavy shirt, you might ask her how she feels and if she has a fever.  Just being observant might help you notice someone isn't well and should be home until she or he is better or even should isolate for a while, maybe even up to two weeks.

Temperatures are a key feature of COVID 19.  Checking each other for a fever could mean saving more lives in the long run.

Coughing - Everybody coughs.  All the time.  For a hundred different reasons.  Face coverings should probably be a permanent part of our lives.  Most are from allergies or other simple reasons that cause no harm.  But right now, coughs generate a lot of the kinds of droplets that carry the virus up to twenty feet.  So coughs take on a greater importance.

The COVID cough is a dry cough.  Almost all other coughs such as for flu, colds, and allergies are "wet" coughs, usually seeking to move phlegm out of our throats and lungs.  So when you or someone else coughs, listen for the gurgle common to the usual coughs.  The COVID 19 cough is "dry" because the phlegm it causes in people is gooier and does not bubble up like normal phlegm when a person coughs.  The reflex to cough is the body's proper reaction but with COVID 19, the cough is almost useless.  

Someone is actually developing an app which distinguishes between several kinds of coughs and can report which disease the cougher has.

 One doctor adds that COVID 19 tends to cause shorter breath so he suggests that a person can try to hold his breath for ten seconds.  The infected person is very likely to have to cough after holding his breath for ten seconds.

Coughing is a key feature of COVID 19.  Spotting a dry cough may be an important test directing the person to self isolate.

Being pale - This disease attacks our lungs and causes a drop in oxygen in our blood.  That leads to three specific symptoms: feeling weak, being short of breath, and turning pale.  Everyone feels weak sometime in the day and sometimes for days at a time for reasons having nothing to do with COVID 19.  Similarly, being short of breath can also be a symptom of very many other health issues.  

Turning pale, among caucasian ethnicities, means the face skin becomes off color, less pink, and includes blue color around the edges of the lips and sometimes under the finger nails.  Among other ethnicities, the visible signs could be a little different, such as black skinned people looking grey and yellow skinned people looking almost white.  Everyone has a good idea when someone from their group does not look right because they have low oxygen in their systems.

Being pale, along with dry coughing, and a fever would be a serious sign of the virus.  They are relatively observable without touching the person showing these signs.

Update: There are finger tip oximeters that measure the percentage of oxygen your blood contains and also takes your pulse.  These little gimos are not very expensive and may be available in most places in the world.   When the oxygen count drops below a person’s normal level (usually above 90%), it may be a sign of the presence of COVID 19.  Devices like Fitbits and I-watches may have the ability to test for oxygen levels but there is a question about their reliability.  

Walking funny -  The COVID 19 virus attacks the joints of some people and even after they have recovered, their joints have become arthritic and may or may not ever recover their previously painless condition.  But as a person's infection sets in, it may cause some people to walk differently.  Those without other noticeable symptoms may "present" because they no longer walk the same.

One of the best physical exams a doctor ever gave me included him asking me to walk toward him as he crouched across the room and then turning and walking away from him.  Over his career, he had learned to distinguish between different kinds of walk and movement based on where in the joints the pain and damage were the worst in the patient.

If someone's movements are just off normal. they may be infected.

Smells different - One typical symptom for most COVID 19 patients is their own loss of the ability to smell and taste things.  It comes on without warning and may come before or after other symptoms show themselves.

The point of this observation is that every disease has its own smell.  The old doctor who mentored my first doctor taught him to look for certain smells associated with common diseases.  My doctor did it discretely.  I was unaware he was doing it until he mentioned it to me as he examined me for my illness at the time.  I have not heard any other doctor mention it over the decades of my having many different doctors taking care of me.

But I know that many wine drinkers tend to have sensitive noses that can distinguish many different features of their wines.  Years ago, there was a company that hired and trained people to use their noses to analyze odors for the purpose of helping businesses that had unusual smells in their buildings identify the smell and be able to help deal with it.

Therefore another possible test might be developed where people with a capability to distinguish among smells can identify those with the disease.

These various tests are dependent on the wisdom and experience of those who are in a position to check out friends, neighbors, co-workers, and church members using natural means.  They do not depend on technology and may not be as reliable as the various medical tests are.  But they are possible clues to help spot where the virus has struck and they are very inexpensive!

(Disclaimer: I am not a trained medical person, just an observer and reporter.  Doctors and other scientists will give more accurate information as they have a chance.)