COVID 19 How and when will the pandemic end?

COVID 19  How and when will the pandemic end?

To be a pandemic, the cause (in this case a virus named COVID 19) can no longer find a host in which it can survive.  What will end the virus's ability to survive?  There are three possibilities.  - In reality, the three eventually combine.

One, everyone catches it and either dies or survives.  It is expected that those who survive have built up antibodies in their blood that will kill the virus if it enters their bodies again. - There is a possibility that this virus may be different enough not to operate like any other previously known disease-causing agent.  Anecdotal evidence says in South Korea some who caught it are catching it again.  It is too early to know if that is what is happening or if the testing of those patients was accurate. - There is some evidence that the virus could die out after infecting only as much as 70 % of the population.  But that is yet to be seen to be true of this particular virus.  But eventually, with no intervention, the virus runs out of hosts in which it can live and reproduce to make someone sick.

Two, scientists find something that can kill the virus in people.  There are at least a hundred groups and companies seeking such medicines.  Some are experimenting with things no one had thought of before.  Most are trying older, known medicines that have worked in infections caused by similar viruses.  To be sure the medicine they are trying is safe and effective, each medicine has to be tested over several months’ time to be sure it causes no harm and in fact stops the virus from causing any more damage to the patient.  There are a lot of situations such as patients with heart conditions who may not be able to use some medicines that work on other patients.  Variables like that have to be accounted for, hence a little more time has to be taken to be sure.  Estimates are that such a medicine or medicines are effective will be known within the next six months.  But then it will take as many more months to get the medicine manufactured in enough quantities to be able to be released for use by doctors. clinics, and hospitals.  Once that medicine is mass produced and distributed around the world, the virus could be overcome and the pandemic could be over.  That is estimated as anywhere from the end of the year to mid-summer next year if all goes well. - One of the most promising is the use of blood serum from patients who have survived, developed antibodies, and those antibodies prove to work in patients who are still sick.  

Three, scientists in over 100 places are trying to develop a vaccine which can help people develop immunity to the virus.  We have many such vaccines for many diseases like pneumonia, measles, and smallpox.  Each vaccine protects people from a specific virus or germ.  Sometimes it takes more than one round of injection or other form of receiving it.  The timing of discovering the vaccine is similar to the timing for medicine.  Testing is needed to be sure it works and is safe.  Then there's the matter of getting the manufacturing going to make enough to vaccinate everyone.  That is expected to be about 18 months also.  But once the vaccine is distributed to everyone, the virus will no longer have hosts that will allow them to grow.

In reality, the medicine may be only a few months away and the vaccine might be ready by the end of the year.  There are many wonderful people looking at all the possibilities and finding new ideas to add to what has been learned over the years.

But also in reality, the virus may change.  Flu viruses change every year or so and the vaccine that worked on last year's flu virus may not work on next year's so a new vaccine has to be made.  One of the reasons there are doctors posted in areas that have produced previous epidemics and pandemics is so they can identify the new or changed viruses that are developing every year.  Their research can give the testing and the manufacturing elements a head start.  

In one sense, once a new virus like COVID 19 comes along, it may be with us for us the rest of our lives like the flu viruses have been.  

But in another sense, this virus will be defeated and may teach us how to be more ready for the next time it evolves into another form and infects human beings in a new round.  If we do put up the defenses properly, the next time will not be as widespread nor as dangerous.

Finally, by staying away from each other and taking precautions like wearing face coverings when we have to be with others, cleaning our hands, not touching faces, staying home, working at home, and isolating when showing symptoms, we buy time until the medicine is found and the vaccine is ready. 

(Disclaimer: I am not a trained medical person, just an observer and reporter.  Doctors and other scientists will give more accurate information as they have a chance.)